By Mohamed Maher – 6 minutes read

For over two decades now many countries and blocs have been calling for the reform of the UN Security Council unjust system to include more countries, especially developing States, as well as reforming the Veto system or abolishing it altogether. Many ideas for the reform and how it should or could be have been discussed in different occasions, including 2006, 2010, 2018, but yet in vain. The question is, how long will it take? And what should really happen to impose a reform? Just thinking about it is scary.

Too many axes are on the stake, shaking the whole world system formed after WWII. The power struggle between US and China, the economically make-sense-commercial ties between the EU and China, the challenges facing the eternal alliance between the EU and US, the Brexit and what comes with it of untying EU-UK interests, Australia sometimes gets stuck in the middle, but always takes the US side at the end,  and the Middle East resources of Oil are no longer needed as much as before, given the clean and renewable energy trends worldwide.

EU-US Ties in Light of Conflict of Interests

EI2

The EU doesn’t trust the US any more, or at least to a certain extent. Defense ministers from 10 European countries gathered in Paris in 2018 to set the agenda for the European Intervention Initiative (EI2), a defense coalition spearheaded by French President Emmanuel Macron. The meeting came a day after Macron called for a “real European army” to be established as a means to wean Europe off of US defense guarantees, especially after US President Donald Trump threatened to moderate Washington’s commitment to the continent. “We need a Europe which defends itself better alone, without just depending on the United States,” Macron said. According to the French Ministry of Defense, once the initiative is “mature enough” could be opened to other countries fulfilling the same conditions.

Map of the Member States of EI2 Initiative

PEACE Cable

PEACE Cable, Pakistan & East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) is 12,000 km long, privately owned cable system that provides an open, flexible and carrier-neutral services for its customers. The company executing this project is a Chinese company, which US objected clearly and firmly, however the objection met with the refusal of the EU, as the government of French President Emmanuel Macron doesn’t want to isolate China from internet infrastructure, in part so France won’t have to “fully depend on U.S. decisions,”  this was said in an interview at the Atlantic Council in February. Merkel said she did not think decoupling from China was “the right way to go, especially in this digital age”. PEACE is privately owned and invested by PEACE CABLE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK CO., LIMITED, a subsidiary of China-based HENGTONG Group and supplied by Huawei Marine.

PEACE Cable Map

Nord (North) Stream 2 Pipeline

Rubbing salt into the wound, US and EU had a long debate on Nord Stream 2, a Gas Pipeline from Russia to Germany avoiding Ukraine and Poland, and a firm refusal from the US was clearly and repeatedly expressed, fearing the Russian political influence on EU. Finally, US reached a deal with Germany on the matter somehow controls the potential Russian influence, yet US official Victoria Nuland said it was “a bad pipeline”, after the deal with Germany was concluded.

Nord Stream2 Map (Avoiding Ukraine & Poland)

AUKUS

Today, 16 of September, France accused US President Joe Biden of stabbing it in the back and acting like his predecessor Donald Trump after Paris was pushed aside from a lucrative defense deal that it had signed with Australia for submarines to strengthen Canberra’s military capabilities in the face of a rising China. The deal was worth (€31 billion, $36.5 billion) in 2016, but had almost doubled since then.

The Australia-UK-US alliance – dubbed AUKUS – announcement came just before the EU was scheduled to detail its own Indo-Pacific strategy . The alliance fuelled fears in Brussels that Washington was cutting out the EU at time when several European capitals are still smarting over the way the US handled the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, on Thursday complained that Brussels was kept out of the loop on the AUKUS partnership. “We regret not having being informed, not having been part of these talks,” said Borrell. “I understand how disappointed the French government will be.”

AUKUS Member States

In general, the EU-China ties are growing hugely and the US doesn’t want that to happen at whatever cost, but the US in not able to compensate EU economically, while the Chinese influence is growing in the EU like a dragon. Let alone the US withdrawal from Afghanistan that jeopardizes the EU security in whole.

EU-UK Ties in Light of Brexit

Even before Brexit happens, EU and UK are looking for new allies, yet the UK is in a worse position. The UK started to have commercial/economic agreements with countries around the world, individually, trying to catch up with the economic loss it will incur from the Brexit. The UK is suffering because of Brexit as they can’t find employees in specific expertise.

According to the UK Office for National Statistics, goods exports plunged by 41% and imports by 29% as the UK’s departure from the EU’s single market had a major impact, as did additional bureaucracy and sometimes unexpected costs and taxes.  According to a report by the Federation of Small Businesses (fsb) in late March Nearly a quarter of small UK firms surveyed said they had temporarily halted sales with the EU because of post-Brexit rules.

The impact indeed hit several areas of cooperation between the two parties, including but limited to food and agriculture, fishing, industry, health care and even financial services and Information and Communication Technology area.

UK-EU Exports & Imports Dec-2020 vs Jan-2021

Apparently, the UK is getting closer to the US drifting away from the EU, with what comes with it of stances on international and regional matters.

US MExit (Middle East Exit)

ME oil era is fading away pushing President Joe Biden to do what every administration talks about but never manages to really do: Get U.S. forces out of the Middle East. His administration has removed Patriot missiles from the region, curtailed B-52 shows of force against Iran, and is preparing to bring home U.S. aircraft carriers after decades of dangerous Gulf deployments. In addition, of course, Biden is ending what he himself called the “forever war” in Afghanistan.

The gap the US is leaving must be filled, but is Israel capable of filling this gap!?, not likely, so, most likely the gap will be filled by regional powers who are allies with US, or regional powers might form some kind of a defense alliance as it looks like it, however this will definitely open the door for the US traditional rivals – Russia and China – in the Middle East.

Conclusion

The rapid change in the map of the allies and enemies, the network of interests and emerging regional powers are pushing the world rapidly to change the system it’s running by, in light of the new mega scale globalization.

EU, US and UK will always have some kind of a common ground for issues, given the culture and origins background and what comes with them, however it could be surprising how far could the conflict of interests go.